NBA Player Props 3/12

NBA Player Props 3/12

We only had four games to dive into yesterday, but that did not stop us from having a good night overall. We cashed two of the three main plays, while missing the Giannis ladder.

Today features a bigger betting slate than what we saw last night, with two big games on the docket:

Oklahoma City Thunder vs. Boston Celtics, 7:30 p.m. ET

Minnesota Timberwolves vs. Denver Nuggets, 10 p.m. ET

With that thought in mind, please check out the three best NBA player prop picks for today.

Play 1: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander over 10.5 1st Q Points (-115) bet365

This might seem like a crazy line, but SGA is on a crazy run recently. He has hit this in 19 of his last 30 games, and also four of his last five. That said, he did miss it in his last game, so we get a slight fade of recent results with this one.

Despite the Celtics having a good defense overall, the matchup against is about as good as it gets. The Celtics allow the fifth-most points per game to PnR ball handlers, and the second-most points per game via ISO. Obviously, SGAi is one of the best scorers in the NBA with the ball in his hands either ISOing or running a pick-and-roll as the main ball handler.

If you look at teams in the bottom half guarding the PnR ball handler, SGA has hit 11 or more points in an 13 of his last 16 games.

Play 2: Devin Booker over 25.5 points (-110) BetMGM

This is a phenomenal matchup for Booker against the Rockets. He scores the majority of his points as the PnR ball handler, and the Rockets allow the second-most points per game to that play type. The Rockets are also the fourth-worst defense guarding ISO, which Booker does not do a ton, but is capable of doing.

This season, Booker has played 13 games against teams in the bottom 10 guarding the PnR, and he has hit 28+ points in nine of those 13 games, averaging 28.2 points per game.

Overall, 10 of 15 players with Bookers scoring profile have hit their point prop over against the Rockets, including 3/4 who have done it since the All-Star Break.

This is also a beautiful fade of recent results, as Booker has missed this in five of his last six games, which came after cashing in four straight. The volume has been there for Book, he just hasn't been shooting well, which changes tonight.

Play 3: Anthony Edwards over 26.5 points (-109) Caesars

What we are doing here, is backing Anthony Edwards to show up against the Nuggets, as this is a number that he has hit in both games against them this year with 29 and 34 points in those two games.

This is also a nice positive regression, fade of recent results spot, as Edwards has missed this in three of his last four games, and in five of his last seven. Of course, prior to those last seven games, he had gone over in 17 of his last 25.

The matchup is hit-or-miss depending on what stats you look at, but the biggest stat in favor of Edwards is the fact that the Nuggets are below-average guarding above-the-break 3-pointers, and Edwards scores roughly half his points from that spot on the floor.