NBA Player Props (3/11/2025)

NBA Player Props (3/11/2025)

After a massive, 12-game slate yesterday, the Tuesday NBA betting slate is a much more tame one, with four games on tap for tonight.

Brooklyn Nets vs. Cleveland Cavaliers, 7 p.m. ET

Washington Wizards vs. Detroit Pistons, 7 p.m. ET

Milwaukee Bucks vs. Indiana Pacers, 7:30 p.m. ET

Los Angeles Clippers vs. New Orleans Pelicans, 8 p.m. ET

With that thought in mind, please check out the three best NBA player prop picks for today.

Play 1: Ausar Thompson over 7.5 rebounds + assists (-115) bet365

This is a number that Thompson has gone over in 12 of his last 17 games as his minutes have gone up from the beginning of the year when he came back from injury and was on a minutes restriction. He is averaging nine combined rebounds + assists in this stretch as well.

This is also a number that he has hit in 20 of 29 games in which he has played at least 20 minutes, which he has done in 15 of his last 17 games. For context, he has played more than 25 minutes (eight times) more times than he has played fewer than 20 minutes, so the 20 minute number is a pretty safe floor.

In terms of the matchup, the Wizards are admittedly playing better defensively and not as fast over the last 10 games as they have been on the year. On the year, the Wizards play at the fourth-fastest pace in the NBA, but that number has dropped to the 11th-fastest over the last 10 games. That said, this is still a good matchup in general as the Wizards allow the sixth-most assists and the most rebounds in the entire NBA.

Looking at games in which Thompson has played a team in the top 11 in terms of pace and he has played at least 15 minutes, he has recorded eight or more rebounds + assists in 10 of 15 games. There are a lot of reasons to like this over for Thompson.

Play 2: Evan Mobley 20+ points (+195) Hard Rock

You can also get +170 at Fanatics, +165 at ESPN Bet, or +164 at FanDuel as the best offered prices.

If a safer play is preferred, the next best option would be to go with Mobley 18+ points as opposed to 20+, which is offered at +110, but the official play here is the 20+ number as that is believed to be the better value play.

The matchup against the Nets is a very good one, as evidenced by the fact that Mobley has scored 20+ points in two of three games against the Nets, and in the one game he missed he scored 18.

The Nets are top 10 in terms of points given up in the restricted area, and while they only give up the 13th fewest in the paint specifically, Mobley has dominated these matchups against teams who struggle to guard the RA.

He has scored at least 20 points in 60% of games against teams in the bottom half guarding the restricted area, and in 62.5% of games against teams that are between 10-20 in terms of points in the paint allowed while also being in the bottom half guarding the restricted area.

Nine of 15 players with Mobley’s scoring profile have gone over their point prop as well, so all in all this is a good matchup for Mobley to score 20 or more points.

Play 3: Giannis Antetokounmpo 7+ assists (+120) DraftKings

Ladder play: Giannis Antetokounmpo 8+ assists (+260) FanDuel

While Giannis did not even hit the seven assist number the last time these two teams played with only 5 assists, he had 13 potential assists in that game.

This season, when he has 13 potential assists he has hit at least seven assists in 15/16 games, and at least eight assists in 10/16 games. So, the potential assists were there, it was just a bad conversion rate, and not something we would expect to happen once again in this game.

Dating back to last season, in his last four matchups against the Pacers he has 13, 16, 15 and 17 potential assists, with an average of 15.25 potential assists in these four games. The reason these four games are relevant is as the Pacers changed up how they play him to wall off the paint.

The first three games against the Pacers last season Giannis scored 54, 37 and 64 points, and it was after that when this strategy changed and the potential assists started to increase.

There is also some positive regression expected with Giannis in the assists department, as he has gone under seven assists in three straight games, but that comes after hitting seven four times in a five game stretch.