Final Four: The Year of the No.1 Seeds

Final Four: The Year of the No.1 Seeds

San Antonio, here we come! The stage is set for all four No. 1 seeds in the Final Four. Only twice in March Madness history have we seen all No.1 seeds make the final four. The other time was back in 2008. If you are a chalk bettor and like to back the favourites, your bracket may still be alive.

The Sec conference is sending two teams (Florida and Auburn) to the final four, making this the second time in tournament history that the same conference faces off. The other time was the Big East back in 1985.

Duke

has looked the best of all the No.1 seeds. A seven-point win vs. Arizona was their closest game, but there was never a scare that they would lose that game.

They were 3-1 ATS through the tournament, winning three games by 20+ points.

The program's performance against a hot Alabama team was awe-inspiring. They limited one of the highest-scoring teams in the country to 65 points, blowing them out by 20, and held Sears, their star, to 6 points and 5 turnovers.

Houston

put up a tremendous defensive performance in the elite eight. It was the best first-half defensive performance I have seen, allowing only 15 points vs Tennessee. They proved in that game why this is the number-one-ranked defence in the country.

They did have a couple of close calls against excellent teams in Gonzaga and Purdue, but they were able to hold them off with their top defence.

2-1-1 ATS through the tournament, winning two of those games by double digits and their best performance in the elite eight.

Florida

had their struggles in this tournament, and if you were backing them on the spread, you would have been 1-3 doing so.

They proved they can win close games, which is necessary for this tournament. They beat UConn by two as 9-point favourites and had to make a 9-point comeback late with 3 minutes left vs. Texas Tech to make it here.

They have guys who can step up with the game on the line and are deep overall. They will need to play much better than they did against Texas Tech to advance to the finals.

Clayton Jr shined and proved to be one of the best players in the nation. 30 points against Texas Tech, leading the comeback. My new favourite player to watch in college basketball.

Auburn

has proven that their struggles to end the year are behind them. They beat good teams to get here in Creighton, Michigan and Michigan St. A scare in the elite eight with an injury to Johni Broome. As of today, Tuesday, April 1st, he hasn’t practised with the team. This is something worth monitoring before you bet on this game.

I had Auburn as the most vulnerable No.1 seed in this tournament. However, they have handled their opponents better than I expected.

3-1 ATS in the tournament

Duke vs Houston

When: 8:49 PM ET on Saturday, April 5th

Where: Alamo Dome in San Antonio, Texas

Spread: Duke -5

Total: 137.5

Head-to-Head:

Duke 1-0

March 29th, 2024 Duke 54-51

Keys to the matchup

Houston’s No.1 Defense vs Duke’s No.1 Offence

The size of Duke (Houston doesn’t have a player taller than 6’8)

Can Houston slow down Flagg

Both teams dominated their opponents in the elite eight, with Duke winning by 20 and Houston 19. It was unexpected score lines, as most of the country and I expected competitive games.

It only makes sense that we get this matchup, arguably the two best teams in this tournament matchup before the finals. Houston will be close to home, playing in San Antonio only three hours away. It is a manageable trip for the Cougar fans. They should be able to outnumber a very well-travelled Duke fan base.

It's no surprise Duke is a 5-point favourite here. They have been the best team in the tournament and are in the top five on both sides of the ball in terms of efficiency. Cooper Flagg is the best player in the nation, and this roster is deep.

This Houston team is built to slow down guys like Flagg and an offence like Duke, with their No. 1 defence in the nation. 38% FG percentage against them, the lowest in the country and 58 points allowed. If Houston wants to win this game, they will need another historic defensive performance and slow down Cooper Flagg with Joseph Tugler, one of the best in the nation, on the wing.

Coaching

-This will be the first time we will see Scheyer in the final four for Duke

- Coach Sampson has been to the final four twice and has much more experience for Houston

Game total:

The total does look low; however, when you look into these two teams, they are some of the slower-paced teams in the nation. Not to mention two of the top 5 defensive teams. I expect a lower-scoring game here and wouldn’t be surprised if it gets under this number.

I’m backing Duke here. I took them at the start of the tournament on my bracket to make the finals, so I’m not turning back now. I believe Houston is live to win this game due to their defence, coaching, experience, and the ability to have 4-6 guys in double digits. It's hard to go against the hottest team in the tournament right now, and I believe Duke's size could make a difference.

I expect Houston to hang around, but Duke should win in the end.

Florida vs Auburn

When: 6:09 PM EST on Saturday, April 5th

Where: Alamo Dome in San Antonio, Texas

Spread: Florida -2.5

Total: 160

Head-to-Head:

5-5 last 10 games

2-1 Florida in the last three games

Keys to the Matchup:

How healthy is Broome?

Can Florida play their best game at the right time

Walter Clayton Jr

We are going to assume Broome is playing. How healthy is he, though? He returned in that game and looked fine, so sitting out of practice could be just precautionary.

Next to Cooper Flagg, Clayton Jr. is right there. He is one of the stars of this tournament; I love watching the guy play. He plays fearless, wants the ball when down, and is willing to put it all on the line.

Clayton Jr will need to shine again for Florida to move on, and they cannot fall behind to this Auburn team as they did against Texas Tech.

Game Total:

Nine out of the last 10 games have gone under between these two teams. This year in February, the game was high scoring, with Florida winning 90-81, going way over the total of 156.5

Like Duke, I took Florida to make the finals at the start of this tournament. I had them as the best team coming into the tournament; that has changed to Duke due to a few concerns in the Texas Tech and U Conn games. If we see the Maryland performance from Florida, they win this game and cover.

With the concern of Auburn’s star not being 100% as well, that does concern me I'll be backing Florida.

I wouldn’t be shocked if at least one of these underdogs in Auburn or Houston wins. Remember, these are all No. 1 seeds, so I don’t see this as an upset if they do.

Enjoy these heavyweight matchups on Saturday. We are hoping for two close games, unlike what we saw in the elite eight, and I believe we will get that.