March Madness Bracket Preview & Upsets

It is almost that time! Brackets are set, teams are studying their first-round opponent, and upsets are around the corner.

The road to the final four in San Antonio has begun. Who will outlast the others and show up when the lights are the brightest?

Let’s examine some of the favourites to win the National Championship and some higher-seeded teams that can pull off an upset.

The Favourites (No.1 Seeds)

The highest seed to ever win the tournament was the 8th seed. Keep this in mind when filling out your bracket. You want to take upsets along the way, but taking a double-digit seed, for example, to win it all, wouldn’t be wise.

64% of the time, since 1985, a number 1 seed has won the tournament. Those are good odds

Duke +360 (Best price @ BetMGM)

(31-3) *11 Game Win Steak

The odd-on favourite to win the tournament, Duke, is coming off an ACC championship win without their best player, Flagg. They proved how deep they are and how well-coached this team is. Duke is one of the hottest teams in this tournament and will get their star Flagg back. How healthy he is would be a question for me; however, they proved to be solid without him.

Nobody will be surprised if they make a deep run and a finals appearance. Many people will have that on their bracket; keep that in mind when filling it out.

Florida +400 (Best Price @ DraftKings)

(30-4)

Florida is playing their best basketball at the right time. Many pundits are backing them to win it all due to how good they looked at winning the SEC Tournament. None of the games in the tournament were close, beating two number 2 ranked teams in Alabama and Tennessee.

A very well-balanced team on both sides of the ball, ranked in the nation's top 10 in both offence and defence in the nation. The one thing that worries me in a close game is their 225th-ranked free throw percentage at 71%.

I have Florida making it to the Finals

Auburn +400 (Best Price @ DraftKings)

(28-5)

Coming into the tournament, they had lost three of their last four games. Due to their recent form, this would be the most vulnerable No.1 seed. I don’t expect them to lose in the first round, but I don’t see this team making the final four.

Houston +650 (Best Price @ DraftKings)

(30-4)

I love watching this team play! For the third year in a row, they are a one-seed. They are a clear example of a team that plays together, with four players averaging double digits. They win on the defensive end of the ball and are ranked first in the country in defensive efficiency. This is a Houston team I could see playing for a National Championship due to them having the easiest side of the bracket, and I love their market price.

Upsets

Do I see a No. 16 seed pulling off an upset this year?

Only twice in tournament history has the No. 16 seed pulled off the big upset. After seeing this bracket, we won’t see a second No. 16 seed upset in the last three years. The more likely upsets would be from the 15th—11th seeds. 

No. 15 Seeds

Eleven times, we have seen a 15th seed beat a second. I have a hard time seeing it move to 12 this year. I’m high on the two seeds this year: Alabama, Michigan State, St. Johns, and Tennessee. All four teams can make a deep run and knock off a number-one seed.

No.14 Seeds

Twenty-three times, we have seen the No. 14 seed pull off the upset over the No. 3. This year, I’m not as sold we see one.

Lipscomb could hang around if they could shoot the lights out. Will I be brave enough to put it in my bracket? No, but it could happen, and I will look at them in the spread market.

No.13 Seeds

We have seen the 13th seed pull off the upset Thirty-three times, and this seed has won five times in the past six tournaments. At least one 13th seed could pull off the upset this year.

Akron:

Winners of 20 of their last 21, this Akron team is very well coached and top 10 in the country in threes made. Arizona has been playing much better competition all year and does come into this game playing good ball. However, styles make matchups, and this style may not be great for Arizona. I will look at that +14.5 on the spread; Winning outright is tough for me to pull the trigger.

High Point:

A very high-scoring team that could shoot the lights out and will need to if they want to stay alive. 29 wins on the year and 10-0 in their last 10 vs weaker competition. +8 in the spread market will be a look for me; an outright win for a tournament debut could be too much to ask.

Yale:

They won in this same spot last year as a 13th seed, beating Auburn. The most diminutive underdog as a 13th seed at +7.5. They are coming into this game winners of 16 of their last 17 games. Their size and defence will be a concern vs Texas A&M, but if they get hot they can win this game. Yale would be my favourite to pull off the upset.

No. 12 Seeds

We have seen the 12th seed pull off the upset fifty-five times. This year, I believe we see at least one that can add to that number.

Colorado St:

Is favoured to beat Memphis, so I can’t say that this is an upset, even though they are the 12th seed. This is a rare sighting; in my eyes, it is a flip-of-a-coin game. This would be your best option for a 12th-seed victory.

UC San Diego:

is not a good matchup for Michigan due to how they stretch the floor and look to shoot threes. SD is 5th in the country in 3 points made. There is a reason why Michigan is only favoured by 2.5 in this matchup. The way Michigan ended the season, it will make it hard for me to bet against them here, but San Diego is live for the upset.

Liberty:

is another high-scoring team that can shoot the three. If this team shoots the lights out, they can beat Oregon. The Ducks have been playing good basketball lately, though. The only team they can’t figure out is Michigan State as of late. I like Oregon here, but Liberty can be scary.

McNeese:

over Clemson seems to be the pundit's favourite upset. Besides, McNeese being well-coached, I didn’t know much about them. According to their numbers, they are more of a defensive team, so I don’t see them shooting Clemson out of the building and getting hot. I don’t see this one happening, but hey, that’s why we love this tournament.

No. 11 Seeds

Sixty-one times we have see this upset. You won’t find many +300 underdogs in this matchup. We saw three win last year; since 2016, we have seen at least one. I can make arguments that all these 11-seeded teams could win.

VCU:

They beat a very good George Mason team to win their conference tournament. On defence, they are among the top 10 teams in the country and can force a lot of turnovers.

BYU is a very high-scoring team, and is playing well coming into the tournament. It will be a fun game to watch to see if the Defensive or Offensive team moves on. I expect a close one here and one of the better games of the first round.

Texas:

If Texas can beat Xavier as a slight underdog, I can see them carrying that momentum into beating Illinois. Texas played well in the Sec Tournament but ran into a hot Tennesse team in the finals.

San Diego St / North Carolina:

The winner has a great shot to beat Ole Miss; I don’t believe they’re that good. Coming into this game, they were 3-5 in their last eight games.

Drake:

Ranked #1 in the nation in points allowed, just ahead of Houston. This team can get hot from beyond the arc as well; It’s a tough matchup for Missouri who is coming into this game not playing great ball.

Bracket Advice

Year after year, bracket after bracket, history tells us that you won't do well if you are just picking the favourites and not taking some chances; you won’t do well. You must separate yourself from the field in a larger tournament with thousands of entrees.

Find some upsets you like and ride with it. You don’t want to pick too many, but finding the right balance is key. It's easier said than done, but it is what makes this single-elimination tournament so intriguing and fun to handicap it.

It is time to make your picks, which you can do on the HotTakes app. Whether it is single-game spreads, totals, player props, or, of course, the bracket challenge, HotTakes has you covered.

Good luck, and enjoy the MADNESS!